Tuesday 18 November 2014

Filip Forsberg

The Nashville Predators acquired  Filip Forsberg in a steal of a trade with the Washington Capitals on trade deadline day in 2013 when Martin Erat waived his NTC to move to the Capitals.
Looking back at the deal that was struck between the two teams, Nashville's GM was quoted as saying he was disappointed that he had to trade Erat away but was excited to see what Forsberg could bring to the table.  Well leap ahead to today, I'm sure that deal would be done 10 times out of 10.
Forsberg has torn up the NHL this season and sits within the top 10 in the NHL in the following categories,  Goals, Assists, Points, +/- and Game Winning Goals.  He has had multi game point streaks already this season and also had multiple point games this season.
He has made highlight reels a few times and all while only 20 years old and so far playing just 17 games this season.
In his previous two seasons he has played a combined grand total of 18 games and accumulated just 6 points in that time.
This season however, he has changed those numbers drastically.  In his 17 games played he has gathered 20 points (8g, 12a) and is a league leading +19 so far.  His average ice time per game is currently 17 minutes and 12 seconds over his 17 games. His advanced stats for this season so far are as follows. His CF% (Corsi For % at even strength) sits currently at 56.1%. His FF% (Fenwick For % at even strength) sits at 54.4% so far this season and his PDO (on ice shooting % + SV%) is currently at 113.8.
While it appears though that Forsberg plays "soft minutes" because he gets to start play in the offensive zone 61.8% of the time allowing him more time in the opponents zone to work his magic.  The remaining 38.2% of his starts are in the defensive zone (the hard minutes).

These numbers are extremely high at the moment and should come back down to a "normal" level but he should still maintain a decent pace this season.
He is seeing, what I referred to as, the "Bozak effect". Where his numbers are so inflated right now that he seems to be an elite level player very early in his career. (Bozak was older and farther in his career.)  This will change eventually and you will see his numbers come down to a more realistic level for him. But in the mean time Nashville is going to ride the hot hand and continue to amaze fans around the league.

This post is being published on a night where Nashville stomped Toronto 9-2 so the stats posted earlier (gathered from www.hockey-reference.com) will have changed for Forsberg.  I haven't looked at if they moved in a positive direction or if he started to regress a little. That is something I will have to read tomorrow.

All in all though, Filip Forsberg is an amazing player with immense talent.  Inflated advanced stats or not, his play this season is something you should expect him to carry on through his career.  Keep an eye out for this young star and prepare to be wowed when you get to see him play live.

That is all and thanks for reading.
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Remember to get out and support your local minor league teams and players.
Until next time.

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