Sunday 16 August 2015

Brandon Sutter's contract

Since the Vancouver Canucks traded Nick Bonino for Brandon Sutter there has been a bit of an uproar from the fan base questioning GM Jim Benning about what he is doing.
Many people, myself included, didn't like the trade of players who are similar in almost every area of the game because they felt they were losing something worth while.
While Brandon Sutter has more experience in the NHL and comes with a higher price tag, it's unfair to say that what the Canucks got in return isn't going to be worth it.
He may be that "foundation player" that Benning sees. And he might just break out of his shell a bit now since he isn't playing (somewhat) in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin's shadows anymore.
But we won't know any of that until the upcoming season gets rolling.

The only knock I have against Sutter at this very moment isn't even against him.  It's against the Canucks and it is the contract they signed Sutter to.
Don't get me wrong, if I was Brandon Sutter I would sign this deal too. But I think the Canucks could have gotten him for a little cheaper then they did.

I have taken a look at multiple players (all centers) in various categories and compared their contracts, more specifically their AAV, and their stats to Brandon Sutter and how they compare to what Sutter will now make on his new deal and tried to figure out what (I think) he should be worth.
The three categories were; centers with 33 points in the 2014-15 season (what Sutter had), career total points and games played totals.

I'll start with the players with 33 points in 2014-15.  The three players who were centers that ended the season with 33 points were; Eric Fehr (WAS) is the yellow dot, Darren Helm (DET) is the red dot and Mike Santorelli (TOR,NSH) is the blue dot. Sutter was obviously the green dot.
Eric Fehr just signed a new contract with Pittsburgh (presumably to replace Sutter) which is the contract I used.
Sutter (26) is the youngest player in this group by 2 years and Fehr and Santorelli are the oldest at 29 years old.
Looking at the AAV of all of the players, Sutter has more than double the AAV than the closest center with as many points.  So if he were to score 33 points again this upcoming season he would make $132,575.76 per point compared to Helm who would get $64,393.94 per point.  Seems like a lot, but it only goes up per point on the next graph.



So for the next graph I compared centers who are the next two below and the next two above Sutter in career point totals.  This one was a little harder to hone in on how much I thought that the Canucks should have paid him.  The two players above Sutter were not who I expected to see, and one of which I feel is overpaid as well.
Starting with the two below, there is; Colin Wilson was the blue dot (NSH) and Daniel Winnik was the red dot (TOR). The two above were; Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was the yellow dot (EDM) and Artem Anisimov was the green dot (CHI). Sutter was the purple dot.
A lot more went into calculations than just the players AAV to career total points when I was trying to get a number I thought would work for Sutter.  Looking at how many games each player have played to get that number of points, RNH was the lowest at 258, as well as the length of the current contracts and when they were signed are a couple.  Also it is worth noting that the Anisimov contract I used doesn't actually start until the 2016-17 season because he signed an extension.  He will make an AAV of $3,283,222 this season which is the last year of his current deal.  So I think you found out who I feel was also overpaid a bit.
You can see Sutter is pretty much the middle of the road as far as AAV goes, with two extremes on the high and low side.  This group also has the widest spread in age ranges.  Oldest was Winnik at 30 years old and the youngest is RNH at 22 which also factors into how much each player should potentially earn on a contract.
The next and final graph that I have looks at games played total.  This was the hardest to try and figure out who is the best suitable contracts to compare to.  This is also a very grey area since injuries can hamper any player at any time which is fairly evident with a couple players on this list.

Starting once again with the two players who were below Sutter (purple).
First is the blue dot who is Steven Stamkos (TBL), then the red dot is Martin Hanzal (ARI).  The two above start with the yellow dot being Claude Giroux (PHI) and finally the green dot was Patrik Berglund.  All the players are fairly similar in age which ranges from 25-28, but the point totals are what are scattered all over the board. 2 are above 450 total points already in their careers and two are just shy of 250 point totals.  Sutter currently sits with 185 total career points.
So after looking at all of the players that I have compared to Sutter, I managed to pick 5 players I felt were good contracts to use as a base and range for what I think are good comparisons for where Sutter should be.  The five I chose are Martin Hanzal, Daniel Winnik, Colin Wilson, Darren Helm and Mike Santorelli. 
Some people might think I should have used other players I have mentioned but these are ones I found to be best suited in various ranges of length and amount that they are receiving.
Starting with length the highest comparison was the exact same to what he received at 5 years. 4 seems like a better number to me and that is where I settled.  5 wouldn't be a deal breaker but it's not what I would offer.
Next looking at the amount the others received made it a little harder.  I didn't think that there would be such a spread between all of the players I compared.  The range of the final 5 players goes from $1.5 million all the way up to $15.75 million total amounts on their contracts. 
Obviously I feel that the $21.875 million that Sutter is going to get is too much, but by how much.  Not a whole lot.  I think that looking at the other players ages and the various other stats made this decision a touch easier but still not just a stand out number,
I settled on the number of $3.5 million per season for the term I mentioned before of 4 years.
This would give a total of $14 million which I felt is fair.  Especially for a player who hasn't achieved better than 35 points in his last 5 seasons where he has only missed 3 games in that time frame.
You could obviously set performance bonuses to help boost Sutter motivation for stronger play, as well as signing bonuses.  On Sutter's contract with Vancouver he is set to receive $1 million per season signing bonus for the full term of his deal, so that is something else to look at.

In the end a 4 year contract worth $14 million with an AAV of $3.5 million would be (I feel) exactly where Sutter should have fallen in.  This gives you his possible break out years, where he isn't hidden behind Crosby and Malkin, at a decent rate that leaves you room for other players if needed.  A signing bonus would seem fine with me at an amount of $1 million for 2 of his 4 years. Then toss in some performance bonuses for incentive (make the playoffs, reach certain amount of points etc) and you would have a good contract.

All in all there is no changing what Sutter will be making, but I'm sure that the 4 year deal I came up with would possibly sit better with Canuck fans. But who knows.

Thanks for reading and please feel free to comment on, +1 and share this post with others.

Until next time.

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